Revenge of the rural voter – politico

“Hillary lost rural America 3 to 1,” said one Democratic insider, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the campaign. Definition of import trade “If she had lost rural America 2 to 1, it would have broken differently.”

After years of declining electoral power, driven by hollowed-out towns, economic hardship and a sustained exodus, rural voters turned out in a big way this presidential cycle — and they voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump, fueling the real estate mogul’s upset victory. What is the definition of international trade The billionaire New Yorker never issued any rural policy plans, but he galvanized long-simmering anger by railing against trade deals, the Environmental Protection Agency and the “war on American farmers.”

When Trump’s digital team was analyzing early absentee returns in swing states, they weren’t fixated on what turned out to be an overhyped Latino voter surge. Trade deficits definition They were zeroing in on signs of an “extremely high” rural turnout, said Matthew Oczkowski, head of product at Cambridge Analytica, who led Trump’s digital team.

The Trump campaign had banked on a strong showing from what it called the “hidden Trump voters,” a demographic that’s largely white, disengaged and non-urban. Trade press definition Based on that premise, they weighted their polling predictions to reflect a higher rural turnout. Trade in value definition The surge, as it turned out, exceeded even their expectations.

The rural voting bloc, long a Republican stronghold, has shrunk dramatically over the years, as farms have become more efficient and jobs have migrated to cities and suburbs. The definition of trademark About 20 percent of the country, just less than 60 million people, live in rural America. Definition of trade network This year, rural voters made up 17 percent of the electorate, according to exit polling.

But in a year with lackluster urban turnout for Clinton, the rural vote ended up playing a key role in Trump’s sweep of crucial Rust Belt swing states, which also tend to have much larger rural populations.

In Michigan, Trump appears to have won rural and small towns 57 percent to 38 percent, exit polls analyzed by NBC show, faring much better than Mitt Romney in 2012, who won the same group 53-46. Definition of trade barrier In Pennsylvania, Trump blew Clinton out of the water among rural and small-town voters, 71-26 percent, according to exit polls. What is the definition of tradeoff in economics In 2012, Romney pulled 59 percent. Definition of trade deficit In Wisconsin, Trump won the demographic 63-34 percent.

It will be weeks before more granular data show the full extent of the rural-urban divide, but initial calculations from The Daily Yonder, a website dedicated to rural issues, shows Clinton’s support among rural voters declined more than 8 percentage points from President Barack Obama’s in 2012.

Obama’s support in rural America also eroded between 2008 and 2012, from a high of 41 percent to 38 percent. Trade investment definition But Clinton took it to a new low: 29 percent.

“Trump supporters are more rural than even average Republicans,” Oczkowski said. Global free trade definition “What we saw on Election Day is that they’re even more rural than we thought.”

But numerous Democrats in agriculture circles buzzed with frustration over what they regarded as halfhearted efforts to engage rural voters. Definition of trade restrictions Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack had urged the Clinton campaign to shore up rural outreach, multiple sources said, beating the same drum he has for several cycles as Democrats have seen their rural support steadily erode.

By all accounts, the Clinton campaign didn’t think it really needed rural voters, a shrinking population that’s reliably Republican. Fair trade organization definition The campaign never named a rural council, as Obama did in 2012 and 2008. World trade center definition It also didn’t build a robust rural-dedicated campaign infrastructure. Definition of trade imbalance In 2008, Obama had a small staff at campaign headquarters dedicated to rural messaging and organizing efforts and had state-level rural coordinators in several battleground states throughout the Midwest and Rust Belt.

“There was an understanding that these were places where we needed to play and we needed to be close,” said a source familiar with the effort.

The Clinton campaign did not respond to questions about whether it had a rural strategy. Balance of trade surplus definition One source said a staffer in Brooklyn was dedicated to rural outreach, but the assignment came just weeks before the election.

The campaign did some targeted mail and used surrogates like Vilsack to campaign in rural battlegrounds, a Clinton aide said. Post trade definition The aide noted that Trump got the same number of overall votes as Romney — although he did not dispute that Trump did far better in rural areas.

“The issue was, we did not see the turnout we needed in the cities and suburbs where our supporters were concentrated,” the aide said. Trade buyers definition “We underperformed in places like Bucks County in Pennsylvania and Wayne County in Michigan. Definition of trade finance We believe we were on pace for high turnout based on the opening weeks of early voting in states like Florida, Nevada, even Ohio. Trade definition in business But it fell off on Election Day, based on — we think — the Comey letter dimming enthusiasm in the final week,” a reference to FBI Director James Comey’s announcement 11 days before the election that investigators were examining new evidence in the probe of Clinton’s email server. Definition of external trade (Nine days later, Comey wrote a second letter saying the review had turned up nothing to change his earlier conclusion that there had been no criminal conduct.)

It’s not altogether surprising that Democratic campaign strategists might overlook the rural vote. Trade center definition In 2012, turnout in rural communities dropped off precipitously, and demographic shifts occurring largely in cities and suburbs have given Democrats a sense of a growing advantage. Definition of trade Also, rural communities are, almost by definition, not densely populated, so it requires much more time and effort to do outreach.

“It’s a tough slog,” lamented one young Democrat who asked for anonymity to talk candidly. Trade character definition “It’s hard to speak to rural America. Definition of maritime trade It’s very regionally specific. Risk on trade definition It feels daunting. Service trade definition You have these wings of the party, progressives, and it’s hard to talk to those people and people in rural America, and not seem like you’re talking out of both sides of your mouth.”

But Trump’s blowout in rural America is seen as a warning sign for Democrats in 2018. Definition of trade off Several farm-state lawmakers will be up for reelection, including Sens. National trade policy definition Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Jon Tester of Montana.

Beyond 2018, there are deep concerns the party is losing the already weak support it had in rural America, and there don’t appear to be any serious efforts to stop the bleeding.

Advocates for more rural engagement say it’s not that Democrats have a real shot at winning in these communities, but they can’t let Republicans run up the score unchecked.

There’s been a sense that Democrats could largely write off the rural vote, as rural voters have left the party because the exodus was offset by demographic growth among urban and nonwhite voters, among others, said Tom Bonier, CEO of Target Smart, a Democratic data and polling firm.

“That calculus didn’t work this time,” he said. The definition of trade “The dropoff was steep. Definition of wholesale trade There does need to be a strategy to reach out to these rural and blue-collar white voters.”

The irony is that Clinton actually has a long track record of engaging rural voters. Retail trade definition She was popular in rural New York when she served as senator. Global trade management definition She dedicated tremendous staff resources and time visiting upstate communities, talking to farmers and working with rural development leaders. Definition of trade surplus and deficit Over time, she won over even staunch Republicans who had been extremely skeptical of a “carpetbagging” former first lady coming to their neck of the woods.

“She was so engaged on the details of the issues,” said Mark Nicholson, owner of Red Jacket Orchards in New York. Definition of a trade Nicholson was a registered Republican but was so impressed with Clinton’s work that he campaigned for her this cycle. Definition for international trade “She won me over.”

In the lead-up to the Iowa primary, Clinton unveiled her rural platform in a speech in front of a large green John Deere tractor parked inside a community college hall. What is fair trade certified mean She advocated for more investment in rural businesses, infrastructure and renewable energy and for increased spending on agriculture, health and education programs. The definition of trade union She also slammed Republicans for not believing in climate change and for opposing a “real path to citizenship” for the undocumented workers upon which agriculture relies.

Dee Davis, founder of the Center for Rural Strategies, a non-partisan organization, said he believes the Trump appeal across the heartland has almost nothing to do with policy.

“What Trump did in rural areas was try to appeal to folks culturally,” Davis said, contrasting that with Clinton’s comments about “deplorables” and putting coal mines out of business.

Those two slip-ups were particularly problematic in economically depressed communities that already felt dismissed by Washington and urban elites, he said.

“A lot of us in rural areas, our ears are tuned to intonation,” said Davis, who lives in Whitesburg, Kentucky, a Trump stronghold. Trade barriers definition “We think people are talking down to us. Fair trade definition simple What ends up happening is that we don’t focus on the policy — we focus on the tones, the references, the culture.”

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