A crisis would not be in the interest of pakistan army_ christophe jaffrelot – the wire

Civil-military relations in Pakistan have reached some stability in favour of the army, which may get shaken in the run-up to the next parliamentary election when Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif tries to bring his Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML(N)) to power again, says Christophe Jaffrelot, a professor at King’s College London. Best business ideas with low investment with high profit Jaffrelot was in Delhi recently for the release of his new book, Pakistan at the Crossroads: Domestic Dynamics and External Pressures, when The Wire caught up with him.

Jaffrelot considers the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as a factor of stability for Pakistan, with neither the army nor the government ready to spark off any open confrontation that could rock the implementation of the mega investment project. Low budget high profit business This also means that there may not be any meaningful progress on the India-Pakistan talks front, with the army continuing to lead the foreign policy channel and the Sharif government not willing to risk a power struggle, asserts Jaffrelot.


He believes that despite all the possibility of talks with Pakistan being a non-starter, Prime Minister Narendra Modi took the initiative under external pressure, including from business lobbies, and the need to assuage concerns after India expanded military ties with Afghanistan.

Any ammunition that will weaken the PML(N) will be helpful to the army. High profit products to sell In fact, the army is trying to weaken Sharif since 2013 when he was elected.

Sharif started with many ambitions in 2013. Low investment high profit business in bangalore He wanted to promote some rapprochement to India, as evident from the fact that he came to the swearing ceremony of Modi. Low investment and high profit business He wanted to talk to the Pakistani Taliban. High profit margin industries He wanted to have Musharraf facing the judges. High profit items to sell The army was against these three options and Nawaz Sharif could not fulfil any of these objectives. High profit shares Why? Because the army doesn’t want him to rule, they want him to only govern.

Nawaz Sharif was still trying to speak to the Taliban when the North Waziristan operation was initiated and there was no point of talking to the Taliban anymore. High profit crafts Instead of having Musharraf facing his judges, he has been obliged to let him go. Low cost high profit business And thirdly, while he still wants to speak to India, anytime he does, there is a kind of sabotage operation that takes place. Low cost high profit shares Now it is very difficult for India to initiate new talks, because the risk of any form of retaliation is too high.

The military in Pakistan want a weak prime minister – they don’t want him to seize power and to govern. Small business with high profit margin in india One, the army does not want to micro-manage the economy that is not in a good shape. Low investment high profit business in kerala Second, if there was no façade of democracy – and even more clearly if there was a coup -Pakistan would have to face sanctions and neither the US nor the IMF could give money to Islamabad.

In fact, today, the military have the best of two worlds. High profit agriculture business in india They are in charge of key domains – of course the nuclear programme, but also the foreign policy at large – and they don’t have to take the risk of micro-managing the country. Businesses with high profit margins In the past, when they had tried to assert themselves in such a way, the civilians had resisted and these tensions had resulted in some instability. Low value high profit shares In the late 1990s, for instance, the tussle between Nawaz Sharif and Parvez Musharraf had led to the 1999 coup. Business with less investment and high profit Today, Nawaz Sharif has been weakened again and and he’s not in a position to resist – he may not even try. Profit margin high or low In some way, Pakistan has reached a new form of equilibrium and stability. Low capital high profit business ideas And that will probably last till the next election. Retail business with high profit margin But the next election will be a challenging moment because to win again, Sharif will have to assert himself. Low investment high profit business ideas in india Voters will not support a weak politician. Retail products with high profit margins He’ll have to show some muscle and claim that he is the boss which may generate some instability again.

The army is very popular today, but at the same time citizens will not vote for a weak candidate – who will be facing competitors like Imran Khan. High profit business with low investment Even within the PML(N), Nawaz Sharif will have to show that he is fully in-charge. High profit business india The existing equilibrium may be undermined in the context of the election campaign and its aftermath. Low budget high profit business in india Especially, if Nawaz Sharif wins with a large mandate, then he may try to assert himself again.

You can certainly say that the Lahore blast gave them an opportunity to enter the domain of the Sharifs, Shahbaz and Nawaz – to undermine their influence over Punjab politics.

To some extent. High profit low cost business The army has already started to fight some Sunni militant groups which have helped the PML(N) at the time of elections in the past.

You mean that those useful electoral alliances with sectarian groups will not be available to the PML(N) during the next parliamentary elections, as the army is selectively targeting them in Punjab?

It is too early to say. Business with high profit in india For the moment, the Punjab operation is not after anybody but criminals and not so much after the sectarian groups. Low investment high profit business in hyderabad But the army have targeted some leaders of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi who had in the past worked with the PML(N).

What will be most interesting to see is if the Punjab operation can give the rangers a real say in the state politics. High profit items to sell on amazon The Punjab government is resisting this move and if the rangers are not given the upper hand and the Punjab police remains in charge, then this operation will not make a significant impact on Punjab politics, in contrast to what we see in Sindh. Best business ideas with high profit in india In Sindh, the corps commander has become a major alternative power centre to the chief minister – if not the power centre.

It is very difficult to think of an open confrontation. High profit margin items It is in the interest of the army to corner the civilians only up to a point. Highest profit margin items on ebay A crisis would not be in the interest of army. Low cost high profit products Not only do they want stability because of the foreign funds they need, but also due to the Chinese who seem to be prepared to invest a lot in Pakistan – and who want stability too. High profit items to sell on ebay The CPEC is a big thing in Pakistan. Business with high profit margins in india Everybody almost wants it to materialise. Ebay products with highest profit margin For that, Pakistan needs a good modus vivendi. High profit business ideas philippines What is not easy is to share the spoils of the CPEC, as the military and the civilians want to have their fingers in that pie.

It seems that the Pakistan Army want the apex committee system that is functioning in each province and at the Centre be also applied for securing and governing the CPEC project. Low investment business with high profit in chennai The military have already gained a lot – their enterprises have got many contracts. Small business low investment high profit As you know, the Pakistan Army is in business. Best business with highest profit margin So, they have already benefitted a lot from the CPEC. High profit jobs The Chinese may want the military to be even more in charge as they may rely more on the army for security reasons. High profit items to sell online But, the government of Pakistan will resist this, so there will be tensions. Business with low investment and high profit in india But again from tensions to open crisis, there is a long way – especially when so much is at stake.

In a way. High profit business ideas uk This is one of the themes of the book I have just edited: external pressures are so strong in Pakistan that they contribute to keep the country together and force domestic players to join hands to some extent. High profit margin products It has been true of the American dollars in the past. Low cost business ideas with high profit philippines It is to some extent true of the Chinese projects today. Low startup high profit business And it was and still is somewhat true of the Saudis support.

If there is a dharna, it will be because the army wants to undermine the prime minister as in the ‘2014 Azaadi march’ that Imran Khan had “initiated”. High profit products Not necessarily because they want to remove him.

Yes, and that’s also why he has a fair chance to be re-elected. Low investment high profit business in kolkata The situation is not so great. High profit margin products to sell There are still many problems – fiscal deficit, energy issues… But, he will be in a position to say the situation is better compared to five years ago.

And that is attributed by society to the army. High profit selling pdf The rangers have some records to show as they have made Karachi more secure, for instance. Items with highest profit margin on ebay The Lahore blast was a big blow, but by and large, the situation is much safer today than two years ago.

It is too early to say, but that may well be the case. Low startup cost high profit business And you may even thank China for its role in Afghanistan one day… At least they are around the table when talks take place. Business ideas with high profit margins The Chinese were not that interested in peace negotiations just two years ago, but now they are prepared to play a role and commit themselves.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s April 25 speech seems to have ended his policy of the past two years of reaching out to the Taliban for talks.

There’ll be ups and downs but the government of Kabul will probably have to negotiate with the Taliban – partly because of external pressures (including those coming from Pakistan and China). Highest profit business in india And Ashraf Ghani is not governing Afghanistan alone anyway. Low investment high profit business philippines Interestingly, he was not the one who was supposed to come for the quadrilateral meeting of May 3 in Pakistan (that has been cancelled after the Kabul blast). High profit business to start Abdullah Abdullah was the one.

It was probably part of it. High profit shares in india Indeed, one of the problems of Afghanistan today is that power does not only – and may be not primarily – lay in the hands of Ashraf Ghani. Low cost high profit business ideas Not only has he to share power with Abdullah Abdullah but Karzai has also remained very influential.

They don’t show any tremendous effectiveness! That is why American officers who are not supposed to be in combat role anymore, are again taking part in military operations. High profit business ideas in india They did it in Kunduz, because the Afghan Army was not effective enough

Returning to Pakistan, if there is no change in Nawaz Sharif’s situation till the parliamentary elections, should the Indian government continue to talk to the Pakistan government, since it will not yield any visible progress?

I am not very optimistic on that front (India-Pakistan talks). High profit margin business The Pakistani army will probably always be suspicious of Nawaz Sharif when he talks to his Indian counterpart. High profit small business At the same time, the Prime Minister of India cannot speak to anybody else but his opposite number. High profit crops And if India takes the risk of a new attack that would be designed to undermine any peace process, this (Modi) government will be accountable, especially after Gurdaspur and Pathankot.

Why do you think Indian government reignited the peace process with the Paris chat between the two prime ministers and then the meeting of NSAs in Bangkok?

It is a real question. Business with high profit philippines My hypothesis is three fold. Small investment high profit business india The rest of the world expects India and Pakistan to talk to each other and it is therefore, in principle, important to show some goodwill, to show that India tries to engage with Pakistan.

And thirdly, we must not forget that the Lahore visit took place after the Kabul visit. List of business with low investment and high profit And in Kabul, India handed over helicopters to Afghanistan. High profit margin business ideas So, it made some sense for the prime minister of India on his way back to reassure his opposite member, to tell him that it is not because India is providing Afghanistan with helicopters that it wants to play a military role in Afghanistan. Small items with high profit margin But these are only speculations.

Realistically, can India do anything at all to assuage the concerns of the Pakistan government, so that the talks are a bit more substantial?

If the 2018 election is pivotal for domestic power dynamics in Pakistan, can any forward movement be expected in India-Pakistan talks after the polls?

Well, not much if the upper hand remains on the Pakistani Army’s side. High profit cash crops Paradoxically, India and Pakistan were never so close to a certain normalisation when there was a military ruler in Pakistan and a BJP prime minister. Small scale business with low investment and high profit Parvez Musharraf and Atal Bihari Vajpayee were probably closer to any deal than any of their predecessors. High risk high profit Musharraf could engage India in a manner no prime minister of Pakistan could afford because when a Pakistani prime minster talks to India, he is immediately suspected of selling the country to India by the army. Business ideas with low investment and high profit in india Similarly, a non-BJP prime minister will be accused by the Hindu nationalists to make too many concessions to Islamabad.

Probably, now the only way that an Indian PM can meet a Pakistani army chief is a courtesy call-on by the latter during an official visit to Islamabad.

It is another part of the solution, especially because of the role China may be playing in the region. High profit business in pakistan One of the new questions to answer is how far is China interested in peace in south Asia.

This is certainly one dimension of today’s equation. Best business with high profit It shows that the kind of engagement of Xi that has taken place – including the visit to Ahmedabad – has not made a huge difference. Low investment high profit business And we also don’t know how much the $20 billion of investment China promised flowing in India will materialise. High profit items Now, there may be one more bone of contention (with India), Nepal. Products with high profit margins Those who feel alienated by India may try to turn to China.

China is perhaps interested in economic development to such an extent that it may contribute to peace (in South Asia). High profit low cost business ideas A more peaceful region from Kashmir to Afghanistan would be in their interest if they want to trade more and have access to some mineral resources. Low cost high profit items The “One Belt One Road” scheme is not only intended to give China access to the Indian ocean in Gwadar, it has also ramifications in Central Asia and according to Pakistanis, to Russia.

By the way, Russia is playing an increasingly important role in Pakistan these days. Low cost high profit business in india The Russian shift in interest is discernible, possibly in response to the India-US rapprochement. And there are so few people ready to sell arms to Pakistan.

There are many ‘ifs’ supporting your suspicion. What products have high profit margins First of all, the Baloch guerilla can make some of the facets of this plan derail. Small business with low investment and high profit in india Gwadar is one place Baloch nationalists want to “retain”. Small business with high profit margin That is one big ‘If’. Companies with high profit margins Then, you have the economic and financial situation. High profit items to resell The Chinese keep saying it is a $46 billion investment. Small business with low investment and high profit But in terms of FDIs, it is probably not more than $10-$11 billion. Small business high profit in india The rest are loans – and sometimes loans at very high rates. High profit margin Can Pakistan afford in the long run to pay off all these loans?

So, it could be a re-run of what is happening in Sri Lanka, where the government had to return to China in order to get relief from debts accrued due to major Chinese infrastructure projects?

Yes, loans can be a solution to keep a country under one’s thumb. High profit service business In the case of CPEC, while the whole project may not materialise, the roads may be built though, because, both the army and the Chinese have strong interest in connectivity – and business companies have a vested interest in the building of these roads on both sides. Low investment high profit business in delhi For the rest, it remains to be seen.

To some extent, yes. Low cost business ideas with high profit in india Never before, since Mao Tse Tung, we have seen such a personality-centric China – and ‘One Belt One Road’ is clearly one of the priorities of the Chinese president.

Whether Chabahar will materialise is a difficult question. High profit business in india Iran may be slow on it not to alienate China. Low cost high profit And it remains to be seen how will it be connected to Afghanistan. Items with high profit margins How far will it help India to circumvent Pakistan and reach Afghanistan? There are many, many questions there too.

No, but this is probably why the government is engaging the US more and multiplying strategic partnerships with countries which are equally worried about the Chinese strategy, Japan, Australia, Vietnam etc. High profit home business Indirectly, the rise of China is giving India’s foreign policy a sense of direction.

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